Camera Labs

Now that we know what Nikon's two new flagships, the D4 and the D800(E) look like, the room for speculation becomewds a bit more focused:
- D4x: Will there be a higher resolution version of the D4, e.g. the body of the D4 with the Sensor of the D800 and perhaps some higher frame-rates?
- D750: With the D800 coming in at 3000$/2900€ and the D700 selling for as low as 1800€ is there a place for a "Volks-FX" in Nikon's lineup, e.g. a D800 body with some features culled and a lower res sensor and a 2000$/1900EUR price-point?
- D400: or will Nikon cover the gap between a D7000 and a D800 with a high-end APS-C body, e.g. based on the D7000 with a 24MP sensor or with a body with integrated vertical grip, faster frame rates, etc.? Or will the D7100 be the top-of-the-line DX body for the foreseeable future, with just an upgrade to 24MP?

So what do you think will be Nikon's next move for the their product line at or above D7000 levels?

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Thomas (beware: Nikon-fanboy and moderator!) My Lens Reviews, My Pictures, My Photography Blog
D800+assorted lenses

D4x - is there enough of a need for one once the D800 is around?

D750 - Let's take it one step at a time. The D700 is end of (marketing) life hence at rock bottom prices. Any replacement is not surprising at a higher price. The D800 price doesn't sound excessive in that context. How much was the D700 when it first came out? Now, the question is, is there enough demand for a "D700 like" body, as in lower MP higher fps? That might be a gap worth filling, but if Nikon did, I wouldn't expect that to be priced much differently from the D800. Given they're going to do two D800 models already, I think the line up would be rather cramped if they introduce another model.

D400 - definitely room for one. The D7000 is a nice mainstream model, but they also need something more serious. An integrated vertical grip at this position doesn't make any sense to me. It will remain optional.

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Canon DSLRs: 7D, 5D2, 1D, 600D, 450D full spectrum, 300D IR mod
Lenses: EF 35/2, 50/1.8, 85/1.8, 135/2+SF, 28-80 V, 70-300L, 100-400L, TS-E 24/3.5L, MP-E 65, EF-S 15-85 IS
3rd party: Zeiss 2/50 makro, Samyang 8mm fisheye, Sigma 150 macro, 120-300 f/2.8 OS, Celestron 1325/13
Tinies: Sony HX9V.

Please!

Is this turning into a completely unsubstantiated Nikonrumors cast off site?

If you don't like the thread then don't read it. I skip other ones that are not interesting to me.

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Canon DSLRs: 7D, 5D2, 1D, 600D, 450D full spectrum, 300D IR mod
Lenses: EF 35/2, 50/1.8, 85/1.8, 135/2+SF, 28-80 V, 70-300L, 100-400L, TS-E 24/3.5L, MP-E 65, EF-S 15-85 IS
3rd party: Zeiss 2/50 makro, Samyang 8mm fisheye, Sigma 150 macro, 120-300 f/2.8 OS, Celestron 1325/13
Tinies: Sony HX9V.

Let's put some facts down here first before anybody throws in his wishes or speculation. As I think that all is a price/feature positioning game let#s have a look first at the current and future price-points plus the sensor-size and pixel-count as one major feature:

D7000.D300s..D700..D800....D3s.......D4........D3x
1190...1830....2600...2900....4930....5930....7000 RRP (in EUR)
0900...1300....1900...2900....5000....5930....7000 current prices (Germany, in EUR)
09/10..07/09..07/08..02/12..10/09...02/12..12/08 month/year of announcement
DX16...DX12...FX12....FX36.....FX12...FX16.....FX24 Sensor size/MP

Btw. when looking up prices it turned out that they have climbed in the last few weeks and that the D7000 seems very scarce. You might need to pay 1000EUR to get one. All German prices include 19% VAT.
Another interesting observation was that Nikon Germany didn't care to list prices in their announcements for the D300s, D3s, and D3x, so those RRPs are a bit of guesswork.

Looking into the development of the D700 prices you can see that they dropped pretty fast to around 2000 EUR after 4 months, with the D300s doing a similar dive to 1300 EUR. This is a drop of around 25%. IF this happens to the D800 too, you might see 2300 EUR for it in summer. But please: This is pure speculation, don't base your buying decision on this!
Remember: the Canon 5DII was announced Q3 2008 too (and the D7 in Q3/09) and that certainly put the pressure on the D700 and then the D300s. Now the race is on again, nobody knows what the Canon 5Diii might bring to the table. But if Nikon is betting that their 36MP might protect the D800 price and Canon comes in below that (say with a 22MP sensor) it might just work and keep D800 prices up. It's interesting that just this week the rumor came up that Canon could be offering a "base-line" 5Diii with 22MP plus a 45MP (!) 5DX. Someone seems to be shocked by Nikon offering 36MP
See Bob's post over there.

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Thomas (beware: Nikon-fanboy and moderator!) My Lens Reviews, My Pictures, My Photography Blog
D800+assorted lenses

Now, what would be my take on the current situation.

D4x: I don't believe it. As long as reading and processing 36MP requires 0.25 sec there is no way to make a D4x faster than the D800 unless Nikon creates a new variant of the sensor with even more read-out lanes and increases processing speeds. With a price tag of 7000+$/EUR it might not be an attractive option for users and Nikon alike. Simply put the MB-D12 on the D800 if you want easy portrait shooting and you're done.

D400/D750: The space between a D7000 and a D800 at 900 resp. 2900 EUR is too big to ignore, even if the street-price of the D800 comes down to 2500 and the D700 price goes up to 1100 (with an improved D7100). There should be something sitting at the 1600-1700$/EUR price-point - unless the competition from Sony and Canon leaves a gaping hole there (which I don't believe).
The the 1700$-question is DX or FX, 16-24MP, other features.
Judging from myself: If Nikon offers say 24MP in a DX body and loads of features or a 16MP in a FX body with less features I would go for the "Volks"-FX body. This would also be compelling for Nikon: That way they give people an incentive to get more of their FX lenses. And the more buy-in with expensive lenses they get, the less likely is someone to switch brands.
The only nagging question that might keep Nikon from offering a Volks-FX body: If the D800 is a roaring hit and margins on the product remain high, they might be reluctant to cannibalize it.

Just my thoughts on how things might develop.
Pure speculation, I know. But sorry: the wait for my D800 is simply too long to keep still

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Thomas (beware: Nikon-fanboy and moderator!) My Lens Reviews, My Pictures, My Photography Blog
D800+assorted lenses

They need something to compete with the a77, so a fast 8-10 FPS 24mp body should be due out shortly.

I'm pretty sure that if I was a fly on the wall at one of the Nikon/Sony meetings they have their time-lines pretty much set out as who gets what sensor first and the lead marketing times allowed prior to the other coming out with their model in the same/similar category.

Well, would that be the D7100 or the D400?

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Thomas (beware: Nikon-fanboy and moderator!) My Lens Reviews, My Pictures, My Photography Blog
D800+assorted lenses

I would think the D400 as it's the one that would fill the gap that you presented as it's more of a pro type body that the current D7000.

Also, the D800 is using the Sony sensor that is slated for the A99 later in the year, so it's probable that the D400 will be using the A77 sensor.
This shouldn't be too hard to follow ... no?

Re: D800 sensor from bythom.com

"The sensor itself is a Sony EXMOR-derived one, which is mostly good news. Since the sensor has the ADC circuitry on-board and this results in low read noise and good linearity, we should get the strong shadow capabilities we've seen in cameras like the D7000 and NEX-7. On the other hand, adding all those power and data paths to service 36mp has to have taken some toll on light collection (fill factor)"

The A77 is currently at 1300 EUR. So today it's at the D300s price-point. But the same sensor is in a 900 EUR A65 today.
That obviously gives Nikon two choices: Put this sensor in a D7100 at 1100 EUR or a D400 at 1700 EUR.
This shouldn't be too hard to follow ... no?

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Thomas (beware: Nikon-fanboy and moderator!) My Lens Reviews, My Pictures, My Photography Blog
D800+assorted lenses

I heard somewhere that the D300s is "discontinued" where as the D7000 is still in production ... so what could that mean?

Didn't the D90 and D300 use the same sensor? Where the Sony 24MP sensor could go isn't an either/or situation, it can go in both a D7100 and D400.

_________________
Canon DSLRs: 7D, 5D2, 1D, 600D, 450D full spectrum, 300D IR mod
Lenses: EF 35/2, 50/1.8, 85/1.8, 135/2+SF, 28-80 V, 70-300L, 100-400L, TS-E 24/3.5L, MP-E 65, EF-S 15-85 IS
3rd party: Zeiss 2/50 makro, Samyang 8mm fisheye, Sigma 150 macro, 120-300 f/2.8 OS, Celestron 1325/13
Tinies: Sony HX9V.

Yes, they both used the same 12.3 sensor.
But since the D300s has been surpassed in IQ by the D7000's 16 mp sensor, I would think that it's a natural that Nikon's flagship DX body should re-take the lead and it's spot at the top again.

Yes I agree Westcoast: The D300s is no longer for this competitive world.
I'm just raising the question whether Nikon will fill the gap with a combination of an improved D7000 (aka D7100) plus a Volks-FX or a combination of a D7100 plus a D400.
The 24MP Sony sensor could easily go in the D7100 and the D400. So that's not the factor that decides the alternative posed above.

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Thomas (beware: Nikon-fanboy and moderator!) My Lens Reviews, My Pictures, My Photography Blog
D800+assorted lenses

I would think that launching the same sensor and similar performance bodies together works best if there is a wider gap between the bodies; like the 7D to 60D or the A77 to A65.

They would have to cheapen one of the bodies (D7100) to plastic plus other handicaps so as not to cannibalize each other.
If that's the assumed route, then why not wait another year, discontinue the D7000 and come up with a new plastic body model, the D350 as a little brother to the D400.