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PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 11:15 pm 
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Ken Rockwell wrote:
Latest rumors confirm the D700X is coming in the next month, which is before I'm expecting it.

Grrrrrrrrrreat!

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:10 am 
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(over seven months later...)
Ok, even Ken Rockwell is sometimes wrrrrrrrong :wink:
But suspense is boiling to new hights as it's getting later and later in the year and the probability of a D700x to emerge is constantly rising.
So I had a look at recent street prices to make a new guess on the price of the new dream-machine.
(all prices are street prices in Euro from reputed dealers in Germany incl. 19% you-know-VAT)
D3 = 3900
D3x = 6000 (I've seen some around 5500 but suspect grey imports)
D700 = 2000
5DMkII = 2200
A900 = 2100
A850 = 1600 (I extrapolated/guessed on future street prices)

So the D700x might start at a RSP of 4990 EUR and dip to 4000 EUR in due time. Why? Well that's 2000EUR below the D3x (like the D700 is below the D3, depending on the cost-differential of the bodies) and 2000EUR above the D700 (like the D3x is above the D3, depending on the cost-differential of the sensor).
That in turn would mean that the D700x is double the price of the competition from Canon or Sony. That doesn't sound like a viable price position to me :?

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Last edited by Thomas on Sat Sep 19, 2009 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 1:38 pm 
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Let's just hope you are wrong and Nikon knows what they are doing, otherwise it might indeed be a 'swing and a miss' to introduce the D700x.

And the D3s (according to NikonRumors) is due to be released soon too, so what price will that be if indeed the D700x is 5000 euro?

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 4:02 pm 
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Well, I hope Nikon product marketing is having second thoughts on the pricing. Because the cost-differential of their 24MP FX sensor vs the 12MP DX sensor is waaaaay below the 2000 EUR the have between the D3x and the D3. Plus looking at the competition they might just notice that it will do them no good to calculate the same margin with their D700x. At least that's what I hope 8)

But let's just guestimate a best case street price for the D700x: I don't think it'll be falling below 3000 EUR :? Perhaps combined with some stripping down of the D700 body/features. The long time to introduce the D700x might just be indicative of that.
OR: They add some features to the D700x that they think will justify the 4000 EUR price. Body-based stabilization, full-HD video, in-camera HDR anyone?

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 5:40 pm 
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grahamnp wrote:
I don't think Nikon really needs the D800 at the moment. Nikon and Canon together have 83% of the DSLR market share and Sony's only got about 6%. I don't think the A900 is a threat, not at the price of Sony lenses at the moment.


Quite right.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 6:35 pm 
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Thomas wrote:
Body-based stabilization


I don't think Nikon will make that jump, at least not on high end camera's, anytime soon. But I am no marketing expert or an engineer at Nikon, so I might be wrong.

We will see what will become of it in a month or so...

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:00 pm 
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Well somethings gonna give, right!
I can't imagine that simply slapping the D3x sensor into the D700 body will fetch a street price of 4000 EUR any more. And btw. that wouldn't have taken Nikon almost a year to produce.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 12:07 pm 
Delays aren't always technical. There can be a marketing and sales element to it too. If you release a D700x soon after a D3X, how badly is that going to cannibalize the D3X sales? I have no insider knowledge of Nikon. Just pointing out that a 1 year delay between releases isn't always down to technical advancements/difficulties.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 12:25 pm 
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One thing I don't get is why no manufacturer so far is offering a camera model with varying image sensors. With film it was more or less up to the photographer what he/she uses, but a D3 comes with a 12MP sensor whether you want it or not. It would be totally awesome if Nikon had like three versions of the camera - like one with an 8 MP sensor, one with 10 MP and one with 12 MP. The customer can then decide whether he/she wants awesome ISO performace or alot of MP.

Even greater would be interchangeable image sensors, but we are not going to see that since it would not be good for camera sales.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 1:19 pm 
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I don't think you can ever compare the film camera's with a digital camera, film was a fixed light sensitivity, where with a sensor you have multiple choices with a flick of a switch. And talking about multiple sensors, I dont think that is feasible, cause there will always be a less favorable sensor and the prices will be fixed on that camera, while the others may plunge (and therefore will be bought over the other pricewise alone).

And talking about interchangeable sensors, why would that hurt sales? I think they could make even more money on that one. Just look at Intel/AMD, just introduce a new socket (which would also keep the price high).

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 2:45 pm 
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There was once a rumor about a highest-end Nikon with interchangeable sensors. One sensor was even said to be a pure b&w sensor without Bayer filter :shock:
But I've never heard of that rumor again :cry:
----
From an engineering standpoint that must be a nightmare as the tolerances to which a sensor must be mounted in the body are incredible: one dust particle between the sensor and its mount could ruin focus with wide-angle lenses :x

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 2:46 pm 
I think you answered your own question Ernie, it's not good for sales.

There is so much R&D put into the cameras and sensors, I don't think Nikon or any other manufacturer can afford to do something like this short of giving the user the option of using a last-gen lower resolution sensor.

The 8mp sensor would also make the camera more responsive and assuming that the same technology is in both, it would have a larger DR and better noise handling than the 12mp sensor. I don't think any manufacture would want to have to deal with these inconsistencies within only one model in their line-up.

Theres always MF though! 8)


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 3:35 pm 
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pgtips wrote:
Delays aren't always technical. There can be a marketing and sales element to it too. If you release a D700x soon after a D3X, how badly is that going to cannibalize the D3X sales?

Yep, right! Unfortunately marketing is sometimes holding innovation back :cry:
Why any company in their right mind could do this I will never understand :evil:
The D3x at this price point will certainly only sell in minuscule quantities and thus make up only a small portion of Nikon's earnings. In face of the financial crisis Nikon desperately needs some higher volume gear flying off their shelves. And this will only happen at lower price points and with all the innovations they can muster :!:

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 20, 2009 3:47 pm 
Thomas wrote:
Yep, right! Unfortunately marketing is sometimes holding innovation back :cry:
Why any company in their right mind could do this I will never understand :evil:
So you don't oversaturate your market and further damage your sales; not to mention that obsoleting a product soon might leave a bitter taste in some consumers' mouths.

Thomas wrote:
The D3x at this price point will certainly only sell in minuscule quantities and thus make up only a small portion of Nikon's earnings.
I think it did it's job. Now, of course it's main intention is to hook in those who really need a camera like that, but I also imagine it was to scare the living-poop out of everyone into buying the D700/D3.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 3:57 pm 
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grahamnp wrote:
I think you answered your own question Ernie, it's not good for sales.


Still, how awesome wouldn't it be to have sensors that works a bit like drop-in filters. All you do is to buy a body and then you are free to choose between FX, DX, megapixels etc. Technically it wouldn't be a problem at all, but all that seems to matter these days are sales and not the photographer. And how easy it would make sensor cleaning ...
Good there are rumor pages like this one where a humble photog can dream every once in a while.


Last edited by Bernie on Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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