that nikkor 18-200VR lens will cost more than the camera. I think choosing is going to be a case of actually going into the shop and just deciding which one to go for by the way it feels.
I'm sorry, I forgot that you had stated your budget in your earlier post. To answer your question of whether the shake would be noticeable, it is for me but obviously it would vary from person to person.
I can safely hand-hold shots at 1/40 with my lens at 135mm. I get a lot of shake in my pictures but thats because most of my shots are taken indoors without the flash, I prefer not to use the built-in flash.
The 18-135 is fine for most of the shots that I take but I intend to get a prime next for low light shots.